Feb. 28 - On Monday, 10,000 Lebanese defied a ban on demonstrations to press their demands for Syria's withdrawal (10,000 in Beirut Join Protest Against Syria) as the Lebanese parliament opened in its first session since former PM Rafik Hariri's assassination of Feb. 14. [13:00 - This just in: Lebanese government resigns! Also, the crowd size is now estimated at 25,000.]

Syrian president Assad denies any involvement in the bombing which killed Hariri and told an Italian newspaper that to do so would have been an act of "political suicide." That may seem self-evident given ensuing events, but was it so February 14? Of course not.

CNN estimated there were 50,000 protesters in Martyr's Square and elaborates on the ban:

An estimated 50,000 people gathered Monday in Beirut's Martyr Square despite an order a day earlier by Lebanon's Interior Ministry for military forces to "use all necessary means" to make sure the demonstrations did not take place.

What I find most hopeful is that past differences between Lebanese factions seem to have been overridden by the desire to take back control over their own country (see this article on the tent city.) One of the arguments against any form of consensual government functioning in the Mid-east has been conflict - often armed - between religious, tribal and ethic groups which had been arbitrarily lumped together to form a "country" although there were few ties other than geography which bound the inhabitants into a cohesive unit.

The Iraqi people have shown that they can find common ground which can benefit all the Iraqi people and, perhaps more significantly, reach compromises. Although this unity is still in its infancy, within that transcendence of narrow self-interests lies the seeds of the future for countries of the Mid-east.

The question of Syrian involvement in Hariri's assassination is almost moot. Although it serves as a rallying cry for those tired of Syrian occupation and domination of Lebanon, the long supressed aspirations of the Lebanese for national sovereignty lie at the heart of the crisis in Lebanon and defiance of the ban against demonstrations spring from a recognition of the rights of free men and women.

There's been much discussion about Thomas L. Friedman's column in the NY Times yesterday, The Tipping Points (see extended entry for item) in which he discusses three tipping points in the Mid-east: Iraqi elections, the Lebanese defiance of Syria, and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, but he doesn't tie the events together satisfactorily.

The impetus for change - and that's at heart what the tipping points represent - stem from U.S. response to the events of Sept. 11. Those who observed that the tensions in the Mid-east were reaching critical mass were shocked into recognition that these conflicts had ceased to be spectator sport and had landed in our front yards and that we had to do something, not just anything, and it had to be something that could provide hope to counterpose against the despair of death cultism.

We were paying attention to root causes, but we chose to go the hard course and press to change the biggest root cause from which the others stemmed.

Fact: No democracy has ever gone to war against another democracy.

Fact: One of the characteristics that has propelled homo sapiens forward is our ability to look at what others have done and to adapt it to fit ourselves.

Conclusion: If one people in one country in the Mid-east (besides Israel) can form a government based on and adherent to the recognition of human rights and consensual rule, others will believe that they too can do so and strive towards that goal.

I supported the Iraq war not due to any fears about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction but because it seemed fertile ground for planting the seeds of democracy and, as we had to start somewhere, it seemed natural to pick up where we had (regrettably) left off in Gulf War I.

The Rose Revolution, the Orange Revolution and the courageous voter turn-out by the Iraqi people on January 30 are, I think, part of an ongoing revolution which is peaceful by nature but determined in intent (as indicated by the steadfastness of the Lebanese) and the only question now is in the specifics: where the impact of these marches to freedom will next be made manifest.

The United States and the Coalition of the Willing can take credit for planting the seeds, but it is those who strive for freedom who deserve credit for taking these bold steps toward a new future. I don't know how it will all end, but I have to believe that we have averted a war of civilizations that would have seen the destruction of one and the diminishment of the other. The Tipping Points

Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times
published Feb. 27, 2005

The other night on ABC's "Nightline," the host, Ted Koppel, posed an intriguing question to Malcolm Gladwell, the social scientist who wrote the path-breaking book "The Tipping Point," which is about how changes in behavior or perception can reach a critical mass and then suddenly create a whole new reality. Mr. Koppel asked: Can you know you are in the middle of a tipping point, or is it only something you can see in retrospect?

Mr. Gladwell responded that "the most important thing in trying to analyze whether something is at the verge of a tipping point, is whether it - an event - causes people to reframe an issue. ...A dumb example is the Atkins's diet, which reframes dieting from thinking about it in terms of avoiding calories and fat to thinking about it as avoiding carbohydrates, which really changes the way people perceive dieting."

Mr. Koppel was raising the question because he wanted to explore whether the Iraqi elections marked a tipping point in history. I was on the same show, and in mulling over this question more I think that what's so interesting about the Middle East today is that we're actually witnessing three tipping points at once.

Thanks to eight million Iraqis defying "you vote, you die" terrorist threats, Iraq has been reframed from a story about Iraqi "insurgents" trying to liberate their country from American occupiers and their Iraqi "stooges" to a story of the overwhelming Iraqi majority trying to build a democracy, with U.S. help, against the wishes of Iraqi Baathist-fascists and jihadists.

In Lebanon, the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which Syria is widely suspected of having had a hand in, has reframed that drama. A month ago, Lebanon was the story of a tiny Christian minority trying to resist the Syrian occupation, which had the tacit support of the pro-Syrian Lebanese government and a cadre of Lebanese politicians who had sold their souls to Damascus. After the Hariri murder, Lebanese just snapped. Lebanon became the story of a broad majority of Lebanese Christians, Muslims and Druse no longer willing to remain silent, but instead telling the Syrians, and their Lebanese puppet president, to "go home." Lebanon went from a country where few dared whisper "When will Syria leave?" to a country where nearly everyone was shouting it, and Syria was having to answer.

The Israel-Palestine drama has gone from how Ariel Sharon will use any means possible to sustain Israel's hold on Gaza, which he once said was indispensable for the security of the Jewish state, to being about how Mr. Sharon will use any means possible to evacuate Gaza - with its huge Palestinian population - which he now says is necessary for saving Israel as a Jewish state. The issue for the Palestinians is no longer about how they resist the Israeli occupation in Gaza, but whether they build a decent mini-state there - a Dubai on the Mediterranean. Because if they do, it will fundamentally reshape the Israeli debate about whether the Palestinians can be handed most of the West Bank.

While all three of these situations would constitute tipping points by Mr. Gladwell's definition, I would feel a lot better about all three if I thought that they were irreversible - and couldn't tip back the wrong way.

For Iraq to be tipped in the right direction, it was necessary to have the election we did, but that was not sufficient. The sufficient thing is that a stable, decent Iraqi government emerge that can also quell the Sunni insurgency. That will depend in part on America's willingness to stay the course in Iraq. It will depend in part on the Shiite majority's willingness to share power with the Sunnis - particularly one of the crucial cabinet portfolios of defense, intelligence or interior - and not go on a de-Baathification rampage. And it will depend in part on the Sunni Arab leaders finally supporting the Iraqi majority.

For Lebanon to liberate itself from Syria, the Lebanese opposition groups will have to find a way to translate their aspirations into a withdrawal deal with Damascus. The Syrians will not be pushed out. And for Israelis and Palestinians to really tip toward peace, the moderates on both sides are really going to have to help each other succeed.

Indeed, in the Middle East playground - as Friday's suicide bomb in Israel reminds us - tipping points are sometimes more like teeter-totters: one moment you're riding high and the next minute you're slammed to the ground. Nevertheless, what's happened in the last four weeks is not just important, it's remarkable. And if we can keep all three tipping points tipped, it will be incredible.

Posted by: Debbye at 11:34 AM | Comments (11) | Add Comment
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